Random Thoughts

The unemployment rate is not ticking up because we have a worsening economy. 

It occurs because we have a sizeable population growth, in large part due to illegal immigration, while data-gathering methods are outdated. Illegal immigrants participate in surveys, upon which statistics are based, and they mostly work for cash. This prevents revisions, based on tax data, from being properly adjusted.

Surveys the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts are skewed towards the unemployed. Why? Fewer people have a land-based phone line and busy working people are less likely to pick up a call from an unknown number.

The economy is just fine. Claudia Sahm, the author of the recession predicting rule, named after her, has stated to be cautious this time due to dramatic changes in population and the effect it has on the unemployment rate calculus.

The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut for September is around 30%. If the unemployment number stays flat or dips next week, a 50 pbs cut will be off the table. 25 bips cut is mostly guaranteed.

The FED will have a hard time getting inflation below 3%.

#economics
August 2024

Wikipedia

Sahm rule

method of determining when the economy has entered a recession

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www.tgoop.com/random_from_sherlock/384

338 viewsAug 31, 2024 at 22:03

The unemployment rate is not ticking up because we have a worsening economy. 

It occurs because we have a sizeable population growth, in large part due to illegal immigration, while data-gathering methods are outdated. Illegal immigrants participate in surveys, upon which statistics are based, and they mostly work for cash. This prevents revisions, based on tax data, from being properly adjusted.

Surveys the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts are skewed towards the unemployed. Why? Fewer people have a land-based phone line and busy working people are less likely to pick up a call from an unknown number.

The economy is just fine. Claudia Sahm, the author of the recession predicting rule, named after her, has stated to be cautious this time due to dramatic changes in population and the effect it has on the unemployment rate calculus.

The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut for September is around 30%. If the unemployment number stays flat or dips next week, a 50 pbs cut will be off the table. 25 bips cut is mostly guaranteed.

The FED will have a hard time getting inflation below 3%.

#economics
August 2024

BY Random Thoughts