Grok answers - Estimated Approx Effective Supply is 16.8 million BTC
Determining the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) needed to be in the top 1%, 5%, and 10% of holders “forever” is complex due to Bitcoin’s uneven distribution, lost coins, and varying holder numbers over time. The estimates below are based on current data (as of April 2025) and assumptions about Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million BTC, with adjustments for lost coins and concentration of ownership. These figures are approximations, as precise holder numbers and future distribution patterns are uncertain. All calculations assume the current global population of approximately 8 billion and account for factors like lost coins and whale accumulation.
Key Assumptions
• Total Bitcoin Supply: 21 million BTC, with ~19.8 million currently in circulation.
• Lost Coins: Estimates suggest 20–29% of Bitcoin is lost forever (e.g., inaccessible wallets, Satoshi’s unspent coins). A conservative 20% loss (4.2 million BTC) reduces the effective supply to ~16.8 million BTC.
• Uneven Distribution: Bitcoin is highly concentrated, with ~1.86% of addresses holding over 90% of BTC, and the top 10,000 investors (0.01% of holders) owning ~27% of the supply.
• Holder Population: The number of Bitcoin holders is estimated to be between 50–200 million globally, far less than the world population, but for “forever” estimates, we assume mass adoption scenarios where up to 1 billion people might hold Bitcoin.
• “Forever” Context: To be in the top percentiles indefinitely, you need to hold more than the average under a mass adoption scenario, accounting for whale accumulation and lost coins reducing available supply.
Methodology
The estimates are derived by:
1. Calculating the effective circulating supply (21M - 20% lost = 16.8M BTC).
2. Estimating the BTC needed to be in the top 1%, 5%, and 10% of holders under a simplified model where 1 billion people adopt Bitcoin, then adjusting for real-world concentration based on current blockchain data and whale behavior.
3. Using posts on X and web analyses for additional context, acknowledging their speculative nature.
Estimates for Top 1%, 5%, and 10% of Bitcoin Holders
Top 1% (Top 1% of 1B = 10M holders)
• Theoretical Calculation: If 16.8M BTC were evenly distributed among 1 billion people, each would hold 0.0168 BTC. To be in the top 1% (10M holders), you’d need more than the 99th percentile holder. Assuming a power-law distribution (as Bitcoin wealth follows), the top 1% likely hold significantly more than the average.
• Adjusted Estimate: Current analyses suggest 0.28 BTC guarantees top 1% status in today’s market due to concentration and lost coins. For “forever” with mass adoption, whale accumulation (e.g., top 10,000 holders owning 27%) suggests you’d need ~0.21–0.26 BTC to stay ahead of 99% of holders, as fewer coins will be available to the masses.
• Final Estimate: ~0.25 BTC to be in the top 1% forever, assuming 20% lost coins and high concentration. Top 5% (Top 5% of 1B = 50M holders)
• Theoretical Calculation: To be in the top 5% (50M holders), you’d need more than the 95th percentile holder. With 16.8M BTC, the average holding per person (1B) is 0.0168 BTC, but the top 5% would hold disproportionately more due to wealth skew.
• Adjusted Estimate: Posts on X suggest 0.2 BTC for the top 5% in current conditions, but with mass adoption, the threshold decreases due to wider distribution. Accounting for whales and lost coins, ~0.1–0.2 BTC is likely sufficient to outrank 95% of holders.
• Final Estimate: ~0.15 BTC to be in the top 5% forever, reflecting moderate concentration.
Top 10% (Top 10% of 1B = 100M holders)
• Theoretical Calculation: To be in the top 10% (100M holders), you’d need more than the 90th percentile holder. The average holding (16.8M ÷ 1B) is 0.0168 BTC, but the top 10% would hold more due to uneven distribution.
• Adjusted Estimate: X posts estimate 0.026–0.1 BTC for the top 10% today, reduced by lost coins and whale holdings. For mass adoption, ~0.05
Grok answers - Estimated Approx Effective Supply is 16.8 million BTC
Determining the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) needed to be in the top 1%, 5%, and 10% of holders “forever” is complex due to Bitcoin’s uneven distribution, lost coins, and varying holder numbers over time. The estimates below are based on current data (as of April 2025) and assumptions about Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million BTC, with adjustments for lost coins and concentration of ownership. These figures are approximations, as precise holder numbers and future distribution patterns are uncertain. All calculations assume the current global population of approximately 8 billion and account for factors like lost coins and whale accumulation.
Key Assumptions
• Total Bitcoin Supply: 21 million BTC, with ~19.8 million currently in circulation.
• Lost Coins: Estimates suggest 20–29% of Bitcoin is lost forever (e.g., inaccessible wallets, Satoshi’s unspent coins). A conservative 20% loss (4.2 million BTC) reduces the effective supply to ~16.8 million BTC.
• Uneven Distribution: Bitcoin is highly concentrated, with ~1.86% of addresses holding over 90% of BTC, and the top 10,000 investors (0.01% of holders) owning ~27% of the supply.
• Holder Population: The number of Bitcoin holders is estimated to be between 50–200 million globally, far less than the world population, but for “forever” estimates, we assume mass adoption scenarios where up to 1 billion people might hold Bitcoin.
• “Forever” Context: To be in the top percentiles indefinitely, you need to hold more than the average under a mass adoption scenario, accounting for whale accumulation and lost coins reducing available supply.
Methodology
The estimates are derived by:
1. Calculating the effective circulating supply (21M - 20% lost = 16.8M BTC).
2. Estimating the BTC needed to be in the top 1%, 5%, and 10% of holders under a simplified model where 1 billion people adopt Bitcoin, then adjusting for real-world concentration based on current blockchain data and whale behavior.
3. Using posts on X and web analyses for additional context, acknowledging their speculative nature.
Estimates for Top 1%, 5%, and 10% of Bitcoin Holders
Top 1% (Top 1% of 1B = 10M holders)
• Theoretical Calculation: If 16.8M BTC were evenly distributed among 1 billion people, each would hold 0.0168 BTC. To be in the top 1% (10M holders), you’d need more than the 99th percentile holder. Assuming a power-law distribution (as Bitcoin wealth follows), the top 1% likely hold significantly more than the average.
• Adjusted Estimate: Current analyses suggest 0.28 BTC guarantees top 1% status in today’s market due to concentration and lost coins. For “forever” with mass adoption, whale accumulation (e.g., top 10,000 holders owning 27%) suggests you’d need ~0.21–0.26 BTC to stay ahead of 99% of holders, as fewer coins will be available to the masses.
• Final Estimate: ~0.25 BTC to be in the top 1% forever, assuming 20% lost coins and high concentration. Top 5% (Top 5% of 1B = 50M holders)
• Theoretical Calculation: To be in the top 5% (50M holders), you’d need more than the 95th percentile holder. With 16.8M BTC, the average holding per person (1B) is 0.0168 BTC, but the top 5% would hold disproportionately more due to wealth skew.
• Adjusted Estimate: Posts on X suggest 0.2 BTC for the top 5% in current conditions, but with mass adoption, the threshold decreases due to wider distribution. Accounting for whales and lost coins, ~0.1–0.2 BTC is likely sufficient to outrank 95% of holders.
• Final Estimate: ~0.15 BTC to be in the top 5% forever, reflecting moderate concentration.
Top 10% (Top 10% of 1B = 100M holders)
• Theoretical Calculation: To be in the top 10% (100M holders), you’d need more than the 90th percentile holder. The average holding (16.8M ÷ 1B) is 0.0168 BTC, but the top 10% would hold more due to uneven distribution.
• Adjusted Estimate: X posts estimate 0.026–0.1 BTC for the top 10% today, reduced by lost coins and whale holdings. For mass adoption, ~0.05
Image: Telegram. Select: Settings – Manage Channel – Administrators – Add administrator. From your list of subscribers, select the correct user. A new window will appear on the screen. Check the rights you’re willing to give to your administrator. The visual aspect of channels is very critical. In fact, design is the first thing that a potential subscriber pays attention to, even though unconsciously. Judge Hui described Ng as inciting others to “commit a massacre” with three posts teaching people to make “toxic chlorine gas bombs,” target police stations, police quarters and the city’s metro stations. This offence was “rather serious,” the court said. Telegram channels fall into two types:
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