IEOBSERVE Telegram 2186
美股因為關稅戰本周經歷了瘋狂的袋鼠市極端上沖下洗,不過大幅波動的不止是股市還有債市,30年期公債殖利率一度飆到5%,在市場大規模重挫時基本上失去避險功能,流動性危機反而成為另一個風暴中心。

有人認為是中國在貿易戰對美債倒貨,但高槓桿的basis trade大規模平倉去槓桿,大幅推升了債市的波動,也讓市場無處可避風險都湧入黃金。

債市的波動混亂基本上聯準會是不可能會坐視不管的,流動性恐慌若加大遲早會出手,無論原因是什麼,債市的混亂最後可能都會傳導到風險資產。

不過更長期的來看,川普貿易戰如果終極目標是降低逆差,那其實這些順差國手上就更少美元,美債市場的需求就會降低。可能反而會推升利率變成美國政府不願見的的局面

更詳細的內容可以看這篇 https://ieobserv.com/basis_trade

Patreon版本: https://www.patreon.com/posts/mei-zhai-da-fu-126418126



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美股因為關稅戰本周經歷了瘋狂的袋鼠市極端上沖下洗,不過大幅波動的不止是股市還有債市,30年期公債殖利率一度飆到5%,在市場大規模重挫時基本上失去避險功能,流動性危機反而成為另一個風暴中心。

有人認為是中國在貿易戰對美債倒貨,但高槓桿的basis trade大規模平倉去槓桿,大幅推升了債市的波動,也讓市場無處可避風險都湧入黃金。

債市的波動混亂基本上聯準會是不可能會坐視不管的,流動性恐慌若加大遲早會出手,無論原因是什麼,債市的混亂最後可能都會傳導到風險資產。

不過更長期的來看,川普貿易戰如果終極目標是降低逆差,那其實這些順差國手上就更少美元,美債市場的需求就會降低。可能反而會推升利率變成美國政府不願見的的局面

更詳細的內容可以看這篇 https://ieobserv.com/basis_trade

Patreon版本: https://www.patreon.com/posts/mei-zhai-da-fu-126418126

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