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Красивая работа, не увидел её раньше.

"Meanwhile, we recommend summarizing the recent trend of compute growth for notable and frontier models with the 4-5x/year figure. This should also be used as a baseline for expectations of growth in the future, before taking into account additional considerations such as possible bottlenecks or speed-ups.

Compute is the best predictor of broad AI capabilities we have, and so tracking its growth is fundamental to forecasting the trajectory of AI. This piece provides an updated view of this crucial topic and argues for a growth trend that has not slowed down in recent years."

https://epochai.org/blog/training-compute-of-frontier-ai-models-grows-by-4-5x-per-year

По ссылке интерактивный документ с живыми графиками, можно покликать и посмотреть данные конкретных моделей. Данные с 2010 по май 2024.

Планируйте, что через четыре-пять лет топовые модели будут обучаться на 1000x более производительных системах.

Epoch AI

Training Compute of Frontier AI Models Grows by 4-5x per Year

Our expanded AI model database shows that training compute grew 4-5x/year from 2010 to 2024, with similar trends in frontier and large language models.

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www.tgoop.com/gonzo_ML/2783

4.76K viewsedited  Jun 18, 2024 at 22:35

Красивая работа, не увидел её раньше.

"Meanwhile, we recommend summarizing the recent trend of compute growth for notable and frontier models with the 4-5x/year figure. This should also be used as a baseline for expectations of growth in the future, before taking into account additional considerations such as possible bottlenecks or speed-ups.

Compute is the best predictor of broad AI capabilities we have, and so tracking its growth is fundamental to forecasting the trajectory of AI. This piece provides an updated view of this crucial topic and argues for a growth trend that has not slowed down in recent years."

https://epochai.org/blog/training-compute-of-frontier-ai-models-grows-by-4-5x-per-year

По ссылке интерактивный документ с живыми графиками, можно покликать и посмотреть данные конкретных моделей. Данные с 2010 по май 2024.

Планируйте, что через четыре-пять лет топовые модели будут обучаться на 1000x более производительных системах.

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