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Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@NOELreports: This has a lot more to do with Ukraine mainly receiving PAC-2 interceptors for Patriot systems instead of PAC-3 MSE. That would account for the vast majority of the drop in the interception rate.

The interception rate depends on where the missiles are fired, whether they are fired at an area with a Patriot system or not, and if they are fired at an area with a Patriot system, what missiles does it have?

The 37% to 6% is very misleading in that regard. Because if Russia is attacking an area with no Patriot system, then the interception rate is 0%. Therefore, the interception rate of Patriot itself isn’t 6%; it’s the overall interception rate of all ballistic missiles by Ukraine, factoring in all areas with no air defenses against ballistic missiles.

If Russia makes a software update to its missile maneuvering, then the interceptors should also be updated to anticipate such maneuvers, something the US must do.

To fix this problem

1. Ukraine should be sent PAC-3 MSE/CRI missiles by the US, which is basically not happening at all anymore

2. Ukrainian Patriot radars needed to be upgraded to AN/MPQ-65A AESA

3. Interceptors need to be upgraded to anticipate a change in the maneuvering of Iskander-M ballistic missiles

4. Ukraine needs to be sent 150 or so ATACMS missiles, or some GMLRS-ER, as well as being provided with US intelligence to destroy Iskander-M ballistic missiles launchers and ammunition depots with such missiles

5. Ukraine needs to be provided with Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Iskander-M ballistic missile motor plant ~900km from Ukraine, and Votkinsk Iskander-M missile factory ~1,320km from Ukraine

Then the Iskander-M problem is solved for Ukraine and for Europe in the future

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Create: 2025-10-02
Last Update: 2025-10-16 16:45:41

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@NOELreports: This has a lot more to do with Ukraine mainly receiving PAC-2 interceptors for Patriot systems instead of PAC-3 MSE. That would account for the vast majority of the drop in the interception rate.

The interception rate depends on where the missiles are fired, whether they are fired at an area with a Patriot system or not, and if they are fired at an area with a Patriot system, what missiles does it have?

The 37% to 6% is very misleading in that regard. Because if Russia is attacking an area with no Patriot system, then the interception rate is 0%. Therefore, the interception rate of Patriot itself isn’t 6%; it’s the overall interception rate of all ballistic missiles by Ukraine, factoring in all areas with no air defenses against ballistic missiles.

If Russia makes a software update to its missile maneuvering, then the interceptors should also be updated to anticipate such maneuvers, something the US must do.

To fix this problem

1. Ukraine should be sent PAC-3 MSE/CRI missiles by the US, which is basically not happening at all anymore

2. Ukrainian Patriot radars needed to be upgraded to AN/MPQ-65A AESA

3. Interceptors need to be upgraded to anticipate a change in the maneuvering of Iskander-M ballistic missiles

4. Ukraine needs to be sent 150 or so ATACMS missiles, or some GMLRS-ER, as well as being provided with US intelligence to destroy Iskander-M ballistic missiles launchers and ammunition depots with such missiles

5. Ukraine needs to be provided with Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Iskander-M ballistic missile motor plant ~900km from Ukraine, and Votkinsk Iskander-M missile factory ~1,320km from Ukraine

Then the Iskander-M problem is solved for Ukraine and for Europe in the future

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Date: 2025-10-16|

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