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中国央行:鉴于近期政府债券市场持续供不应求,1月起暂停开展公开市场国债买入操作。 此前央行主管媒体援引专家表示,要避免对适度宽松货币政策的过度解读,当前市场对于货币宽松有“抢跑”之嫌。 来源:外汇交易员
央行阶段性暂停买入国债的简单逻辑:稳汇率和防长债风险的双重考虑
我在最新一期简报“打响汇率守城战,7.3是第一城”中聊过,近期央行稳汇率的优先级很高,已经到了阶段性保卫战的程度,加大逆周期因子干预力度、发行离岸央票收紧离岸人民币流动性等措施,均表明了稳汇率的决心。
而12月份央行为了防止给疯狂的长债市场火上浇油,买入国债的时候更多买入的是短债,使得短债利率下行快于长债,而短债与汇率的相关性较高,过低的短债利率不利于稳汇率。因此我在简报中提到,央行后续将不得不提高中长期国债的买入比例。

但这样做的结果可能就是,给疯狂的长债市场火上浇油,这又是央行不愿意看到的。 而对于防长债风险,此前分析也提到,央行不管是通过市场化还是通过非市场化手段,都很难有大的动作。

因此,在稳汇率和防长债风险的双重考虑之下,干脆先暂时躺平,近期国债发行还未放量,暂停购买也不会被扣“宏观政策取向不一致”的帽子,看起来确实像是最优解。

来源:宏观边际
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央行阶段性暂停买入国债的简单逻辑:稳汇率和防长债风险的双重考虑

我在最新一期简报“打响汇率守城战,7.3是第一城”中聊过,近期央行稳汇率的优先级很高,已经到了阶段性保卫战的程度,加大逆周期因子干预力度、发行离岸央票收紧离岸人民币流动性等措施,均表明了稳汇率的决心。
而12月份央行为了防止给疯狂的长债市场火上浇油,买入国债的时候更多买入的是短债,使得短债利率下行快于长债,而短债与汇率的相关性较高,过低的短债利率不利于稳汇率。因此我在简报中提到,央行后续将不得不提高中长期国债的买入比例。

但这样做的结果可能就是,给疯狂的长债市场火上浇油,这又是央行不愿意看到的。 而对于防长债风险,此前分析也提到,央行不管是通过市场化还是通过非市场化手段,都很难有大的动作。

因此,在稳汇率和防长债风险的双重考虑之下,干脆先暂时躺平,近期国债发行还未放量,暂停购买也不会被扣“宏观政策取向不一致”的帽子,看起来确实像是最优解。

来源:宏观边际

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Informative As the broader market downturn continues, yelling online has become the crypto trader’s latest coping mechanism after the rise of Goblintown Ethereum NFTs at the end of May and beginning of June, where holders made incoherent groaning sounds and role-played as urine-loving goblin creatures in late-night Twitter Spaces. The initiatives announced by Perekopsky include monitoring the content in groups. According to the executive, posts identified as lacking context or as containing false information will be flagged as a potential source of disinformation. The content is then forwarded to Telegram's fact-checking channels for analysis and subsequent publication of verified information. With the administration mulling over limiting access to doxxing groups, a prominent Telegram doxxing group apparently went on a "revenge spree." Telegram is a leading cloud-based instant messages platform. It became popular in recent years for its privacy, speed, voice and video quality, and other unmatched features over its main competitor Whatsapp.
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