AMK Mapping
Analysis on the Pokrovske-Prosyana direction (Part 1): Since the fall of Vuhledar, Russian forces have been carrying out a concerted effort to collapse and capture the rest of Ukrainian-controlled south Donetsk Oblast. Now with that goal almost completed…
Over the past two months, Russian forces have made consistent progress towards the town of Pokrovske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, largely matching my prediction in this analysis from 1 month ago.
They have advanced around 21 km from Vilne Pole to Verbove, putting them just 13.4 km from the crucial logistical hub of Pokrovske.
As I said last month, the goal of this offensive is likely to eventually bypass the stronghold city of Hulyaipole (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), taking it into a pocket.
They have advanced around 21 km from Vilne Pole to Verbove, putting them just 13.4 km from the crucial logistical hub of Pokrovske.
As I said last month, the goal of this offensive is likely to eventually bypass the stronghold city of Hulyaipole (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), taking it into a pocket.
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A Ukrainian An-196 UAV impacted the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in the city of Orsk, Orenburg Oblast, around 1500 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.
The target was the LCH-24-2000 gasoline and diesel hydrofining unit.
Coordinates: 51.249616, 58.519125
The target was the LCH-24-2000 gasoline and diesel hydrofining unit.
Coordinates: 51.249616, 58.519125
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Hamas has agreed to immediately enter negotiations to end the war in Gaza, after stating its readiness to release all remaining dead and alive hostages in return for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners.
IDF activity in the Gaza Strip has significantly decreased over the past couple of hours, after the chief of staff convened a special situation assessment where Israel has "advanced readiness for the implementation of the first phase of the Trump plan".
Trump stated on Truth Social that Hamas is ready for a "lasting peace" and called on Israel to stop bombing Gaza so that hostages can be safely released.
IDF activity in the Gaza Strip has significantly decreased over the past couple of hours, after the chief of staff convened a special situation assessment where Israel has "advanced readiness for the implementation of the first phase of the Trump plan".
Trump stated on Truth Social that Hamas is ready for a "lasting peace" and called on Israel to stop bombing Gaza so that hostages can be safely released.
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Last night, a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Voronezh Oblast impacted the Kramatorsk Thermal Power Plant in Donetsk Oblast.
As a result, partial power outages have occurred in the cities of Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. Reports of full power outages in any of these cities are false as the Slovyansk TPP (which was recently restored) and other substations are still working.
As a result, partial power outages have occurred in the cities of Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk. Reports of full power outages in any of these cities are false as the Slovyansk TPP (which was recently restored) and other substations are still working.
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In the Hulyaipole direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made additional progress towards the goal of securing the eastern bank of the Yanchur River.
In the south, Russian forces were able to break through the remaining Ukrainian positions outside Poltavka, capturing numerous treelines east of the village, and forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal from the positions southeast of the village. They then went on to enter the easternmost houses of Poltavka, capturing positions there.
In the north, Russian advances have slowed, but remain steady towards the Yanchur River. They were able to make further progress down the Novoivanivka - Novovasylivske Road, capturing positions in the adjacent treelines on the tactical heights.
+ ~12.61 km² in favour of Russia.
In the south, Russian forces were able to break through the remaining Ukrainian positions outside Poltavka, capturing numerous treelines east of the village, and forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal from the positions southeast of the village. They then went on to enter the easternmost houses of Poltavka, capturing positions there.
In the north, Russian advances have slowed, but remain steady towards the Yanchur River. They were able to make further progress down the Novoivanivka - Novovasylivske Road, capturing positions in the adjacent treelines on the tactical heights.
+ ~12.61 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Druzhkivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive and over the last two weeks have made important progress to the rear of the Ukrainian Shakhove Salient.
After capturing important fortifications around the northern reservoir of the Poltavka River, Russian forces began pushing west, uphill, through the treelines which were previously heavily bombed by FABs equipped with UMPK modules. As they moved further west towards the road, the concentration of FAB bombardment shifted over the Kazenyi Torets River to the Toretske River. After several days of fighting and consolidation, Russian forces were able to secure a small section of the main road leading into Ukraine's Shakhove salient, significantly constricting supplies into the area. Attempts are now underway to expand their zone of control to the adjacent forested areas in the grey-zone and consolidate further.
Further south, under heavy air and artillery cover, Russian forces began developing a second axis of attack towards the village of Shakhove. They advanced from their recently re-secured positions northwest of Poltavka, pushing through the treelines on the tactical heights, and forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal towards the eastern approaches to Shakhove. Russia has been heavily bombing the Ukrainian strongpoints in the forested gulley east of Sofiivka, where clearing operations are now ongoing.
+ ~10.40 km² in favour of Russia.
After capturing important fortifications around the northern reservoir of the Poltavka River, Russian forces began pushing west, uphill, through the treelines which were previously heavily bombed by FABs equipped with UMPK modules. As they moved further west towards the road, the concentration of FAB bombardment shifted over the Kazenyi Torets River to the Toretske River. After several days of fighting and consolidation, Russian forces were able to secure a small section of the main road leading into Ukraine's Shakhove salient, significantly constricting supplies into the area. Attempts are now underway to expand their zone of control to the adjacent forested areas in the grey-zone and consolidate further.
Further south, under heavy air and artillery cover, Russian forces began developing a second axis of attack towards the village of Shakhove. They advanced from their recently re-secured positions northwest of Poltavka, pushing through the treelines on the tactical heights, and forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal towards the eastern approaches to Shakhove. Russia has been heavily bombing the Ukrainian strongpoints in the forested gulley east of Sofiivka, where clearing operations are now ongoing.
+ ~10.40 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued to advance in the area of Siversk, making important gains in two different areas.
In the south, Russian forces continued their assault operations in the area of Vyimka, and have advanced to the outskirts of the village from the southeast. From there they were able to penetrate Ukrainian lines north of the village and captured a section of the heavily fortified railway line, as well as nearby positions to the north.
In the north, after capturing Serebryanka and consolidating in the mine, Russian forces began storming the village of Rudnik. They were able to secure the treelines and forested areas to the east, before entering and capturing the main part of the settlement.
+ ~17.24 km² in favour of Russia.
In the south, Russian forces continued their assault operations in the area of Vyimka, and have advanced to the outskirts of the village from the southeast. From there they were able to penetrate Ukrainian lines north of the village and captured a section of the heavily fortified railway line, as well as nearby positions to the north.
In the north, after capturing Serebryanka and consolidating in the mine, Russian forces began storming the village of Rudnik. They were able to secure the treelines and forested areas to the east, before entering and capturing the main part of the settlement.
+ ~17.24 km² in favour of Russia.
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No missiles in Ukrainian airspace. Not sure what was detected, but it wasn't a missile or a rocket.
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A missile has appeared, flying through Kharkiv Oblast. Clarifying.
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AMK Mapping
A missile has appeared, flying through Kharkiv Oblast. Clarifying.
The Iskander impacted the Krasnokuts'k area of Kharkiv Oblast.
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In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to steadily advance, while Ukrainian forces have intensified their counterattacks.
Russian forces advanced in three areas. In the north, a series of assault operations were carried out from the central part of Zarichne, clearing out the last pockets of Ukrainian resistance in the southern streets, and the industrial zone which was previously used as a forward Ukrainian supply hub. Immediately after completing the capture of Zarichne, Russian forces went on to advance west of the village down the gulley leading to the large forests further west. They were able to establish control over the eastern part of the gulley and are now attempting to repel Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces are also attempting to infiltrate the agricultural buildings and surrounding residential areas in the northwestern part of Zarichne from their positions in the forests but have so far been unsuccessful. Additionally, an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack involving an APC was made towards the industrial zone, with the goal of preventing Russian consolidation in the southwestern part of Zarichne. At the same time, Ukraine has intensified their FPV drone strikes on Torske, as well as general Russian supply lines.
Further south, Russian forces continued to slowly push through the Yampil Forest and have advanced by approximately 700 metres. Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack against the southern flank of the Russian positions west of the Yampil - Zarichne Road.
In the south, despite the layered and complex situation, Russian forces have managed to consolidate further in Yampil, securing their positions in the area of the railway station in the northern part of the village. They are also continuing their assault operations through the central part of the village towards the western streets and are trying to enter northwestern Yampil from the railway crossing area.
In turn, Ukrainian forces are counterattacking towards the railway crossing, nullifying Russian progress. Ukrainian forces are also infiltrating along the northern bank of Tserkovne Lake in southern Yampil, towards the southeastern part of the village, which remains in the grey zone. Russian forces have subsequently intensified their FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian supply lines, forward deployment points, and positions further into the rear.
+ ~4.57 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced in three areas. In the north, a series of assault operations were carried out from the central part of Zarichne, clearing out the last pockets of Ukrainian resistance in the southern streets, and the industrial zone which was previously used as a forward Ukrainian supply hub. Immediately after completing the capture of Zarichne, Russian forces went on to advance west of the village down the gulley leading to the large forests further west. They were able to establish control over the eastern part of the gulley and are now attempting to repel Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces are also attempting to infiltrate the agricultural buildings and surrounding residential areas in the northwestern part of Zarichne from their positions in the forests but have so far been unsuccessful. Additionally, an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack involving an APC was made towards the industrial zone, with the goal of preventing Russian consolidation in the southwestern part of Zarichne. At the same time, Ukraine has intensified their FPV drone strikes on Torske, as well as general Russian supply lines.
Further south, Russian forces continued to slowly push through the Yampil Forest and have advanced by approximately 700 metres. Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack against the southern flank of the Russian positions west of the Yampil - Zarichne Road.
In the south, despite the layered and complex situation, Russian forces have managed to consolidate further in Yampil, securing their positions in the area of the railway station in the northern part of the village. They are also continuing their assault operations through the central part of the village towards the western streets and are trying to enter northwestern Yampil from the railway crossing area.
In turn, Ukrainian forces are counterattacking towards the railway crossing, nullifying Russian progress. Ukrainian forces are also infiltrating along the northern bank of Tserkovne Lake in southern Yampil, towards the southeastern part of the village, which remains in the grey zone. Russian forces have subsequently intensified their FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian supply lines, forward deployment points, and positions further into the rear.
+ ~4.57 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Lyman and Borova direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, seizing positions in the low-lying areas.
Russian forces continued their preparatory assault operations on Drobysheve, and were able to capture the Drobysheve Fish Farm, and entered the adjacent forest.
Meanwhile, following failed Russian consolidation efforts, Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the village of Novoselivka, pushing Russian forces away from the centre of the settlement, and into the northernmost streets.
Further north, the Ukrainians counterattacked in Karpivka, crossing the Nitrius River once again, and securing a bridgehead over the river in the northern part of the village, supporting their position in neighbouring Ridkodub.
+ ~1.49 km² in favour of Ukraine
+ ~1.14 km² in favour of Russia
Russian forces continued their preparatory assault operations on Drobysheve, and were able to capture the Drobysheve Fish Farm, and entered the adjacent forest.
Meanwhile, following failed Russian consolidation efforts, Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the village of Novoselivka, pushing Russian forces away from the centre of the settlement, and into the northernmost streets.
Further north, the Ukrainians counterattacked in Karpivka, crossing the Nitrius River once again, and securing a bridgehead over the river in the northern part of the village, supporting their position in neighbouring Ridkodub.
+ ~1.49 km² in favour of Ukraine
+ ~1.14 km² in favour of Russia
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In the Borova direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations in the area of Boriivska Andriivka, and have reached the outskirts of the settlement.
Russian forces advanced from their positions on the southern bank of the nearby reservoir, entering and capturing two large trench fortifications, as well as the treeline bisecting them. They were also able to improve their positions in the treelines west of Zelenyi Hai.
+ ~3.82 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced from their positions on the southern bank of the nearby reservoir, entering and capturing two large trench fortifications, as well as the treeline bisecting them. They were also able to improve their positions in the treelines west of Zelenyi Hai.
+ ~3.82 km² in favour of Russia.
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Iskander threat from Bryansk Oblast. High threat of missile launches.