Possible Iskander launches

Another Iskander launch from Bryansk

The first missile has entered Ukrainian airspace, flying southwest towards Chernihiv Oblast.

Correction: flying southeast towards Shostka, Sumy Oblast.

The first Iskander disappeared. A second is following.

Explosions were heard in Shostka

3rd Iskander launch from Bryansk. Not in Ukrainian airspace yet.

Entering Ukrainian airspace, flying south to Shostka. These missiles are being launched from the vicinity of Bryansk City.

Approaching Shostka

Explosions in Shostka

In the Vovchansk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations south of the Vovcha River, and have recaptured previously lost positions in the western part of Vovchansk.

As a result of resumed attacks, Russian forces were able to advance to the Vovchansk Oil Extraction Plant, taking up positions in the buildings west of the railway line, as well as in the adjacent residential areas on and around Zaliznychna Street. From there, soldiers began infiltrating south along the railway line to rear of the main Ukrainian stronghold in the main part of the plant.

+ ~0.23 km² in favour of Russia.

Russian preparations for the next large-scale combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine are progressing.

2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. They were equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka, and took part in training exercises over the Pacific near the Kuril Islands where launches of missiles were simulated with electronic warfare

1 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. It has already been equipped with missiles.

2 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 have been carrying out daily training exercises from Engels-2 Airbase for the past 4 days in a row, where launches of Kh-101 missiles were simulated with electronic warfare

An An-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane landed at Engels-2 Airbase, likely carrying dozens of Kh-101 missiles for the 5 Tu-95s and 1 Tu-160 currently stationed there.

An IL-76MD cargo plane landed at Baltimore Airbase, Voronezh Oblast, likely carrying more Iskander-M ballistic missiles for OTRK installations in the region.

1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed at Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast. The cargo likely consists of Kh-22 cruise missiles for the Tu-22M3 strategic bombers stationed at Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, but it's possible that the cargo only included Geran-2/3 and Gerbera drones for launch sites in Bryansk and Smolensk Oblasts.

1 An-26 cargo plane landed at Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast. The cargo consists of Geran-2/3 and Gerbera drones for the launch site at Khalino Airbase.

1 An-26 cargo plane landed at Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast. The cargo likely consists of Geran-2/3 and Gerbera drones for the launch site at Shaykovka Airbase, but it could also include Iskander-M ballistic missiles for the OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast.

MiG-31Ks are actively carrying out training missions from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, without simulating launches of Kinzhal missiles.

Accumulation of Geran-2/3 and Gerbera drones continues at most launch sites surrounding Ukraine, in addition to the arrival of new drones for future use.

Overall, there is a high probability of a large-scale missile and drone attack in the next 3 days. 8 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 are stationed at airbases near Ukraine, most/all of which are equipped or being equipped with missiles.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Nove Shakhove, Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~191.
Total land area: ~0.87km².

In the Pokrovske direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have made further progress towards Pokrovske in two areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces continued to advance southwest of Sosnivka, and captured new treeline positions on the tactical heights. They then went on to push northwest towards the gulley, securing additional positions on the former Orestopil - Berestove Road.

To the southwest, Russian forces continued their assault operations in Verbove, and have established full control over the village. Since then, attacks have been carried out down the road west of the settlement, in the direction of Vyshneve.

+ ~4.93 km² in favour of Russia.

There is activity on combat-related frequencies for Russian strategic aviation, suggesting that there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine tonight.

More info to come.

There are very few Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace right now. Due to the change in daylight hours, attacks are taking place later and later, meaning that drone launches will also take place later. Departures of Tu-95s are expected within the next three hours, however.

Additional activity linked to Engels-2 Airbase has been detected. Departures of 1 Tu-160 and additional Tu-95MS from there are expected later on in the night.

Launches of Geran-2 drones from Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast, and Kacha Airbase, Crimea, have been recorded.

The ones from Tsumbulova are already approaching Ukrainian airspace.

Additional launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded from:

Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Cape Chauda, Crimea
Hvardiivske Airbase, Crimea
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast

(not all of these are confirmed)

There is a high risk of launches of Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Voronezh and Rostov Oblasts in the coming hours.