This chart clearly shows how large the coming German retirement wave will be. Would not be surprised if German companies attempt to recruit graduates from American Universities by 2030. Germany buffeted by a triple crisis. Demographic, economic, and in the energy sector.

Taiwan getting much worse by the month this year. During the first two months of 2025 births were down 3.8%. For January-March 2025 births are down 7%. Very bad trajectory for a country with a TFR in 2024 below 0.90.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363

The largest declines in US mothers with completed fertility between 1980-2022 with 4+ children occurred in the Black community.  In 1980 54% of Black women aged 40-44 had 4+ children by 2022 this crumbled to 12%.  For Whites # of children per woman aged 40-44 plummeted from 30% to 9% while Hispanic women saw fall from 42% to 18%.

Indonesia likely significantly below replacement. Most populous island of Java with the capital Jakarta & other huge cities likely falling fast while less developed regions & Christian areas like Papua & East Nusa Tenggara still well above replacement. Christian population to rise substantially.

Indonesia like the Philippines is seeing its numbers of births falling very fast. However,as with the Philippines, they have a large three decade window to demographically get back to replacement. But if experience of almost all other counties is any guide odds are against this.

This graph shows that the cultural shift away from big families became a major phenomenon from the oldest baby boomers (born 1946-1950 who were in the 40-44 age around 1986-1994) onward with 3 & 4+ child families making the smallest of comebacks amongst Gen X and Millennial parents.

Impressive how Vietnamese TFR has held up so strongly in Vietnam (~1.90) while crashing to East Asian levels amongst Vietnamese in most of the diaspora (US, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Finland etc).

Only two provinces in Argentine left with fairly decent fertility. Formosa (1.71 TFR with a small population of ~600,000) that is rural with an agriculture based economy & poor, & Misiones (1.82 TFR with a population of 1.2M) that is also poorer than national average, & has a higher indigenous population share.

Unlike in the United States (where Native Americans have very low TFR) Native Americans in most of South America still have higher fertility rates than average while Black, Mestizo, & White fertility rates have plummeted far below replacement in general.

Montréal has East Asian level fertility rate.

China saw only 6.1M marriages last year. In a country where less than 9% of births are out of wedlock this spells absolute disaster ahead unless some incredible cultural turnaround takes almost immediate effect. 2025 births predicted at 7.3M w/TFR of 0.90.

Chinese marriages have already plummeted by half from 13.47 million couples in 2013 to 6.11 million in 2024. Consequently China’s fertility rate in 2025 is expected to fall to 0.9 births per woman which is just half of what Chinese officials predicted in 2016.

61% of Chinese babies are born to women between the age of 20 to 30. But the number of women in this cohort dropped from 111M in 2012 to 73M in 2024, and is expected to decline to only 37 million by 2050. Even if the fertility rate were to rise, births would continue to fall.

Imagine, just 7,300,000 Chinese births in 2025. That would be around 5% of global births in a country with almost 20% of the world’s population. demographics may hinder China’s opportunity to make this their century.

https://t.co/okGeuyJRhz

These projections don’t take plummeting TFR in South America into account. If Argentina,Colombia,Chile,Uruguay, & Ecuador stay on their current trajectory then this estimate is far too high. North America also does not take Mexico’s cratering TFR into account. Africa also on the high side as their TFR is falling fast particularly in the cities.

The city of Gijón, Asturias (population ~271,000) is already working on an East Asian population pyramid (spinning top). While in general almost all of Europe is in better shape than East Asia demographically there are quite a few areas like Gijón across the EU.

The population pyramid of Nanmoku looks like an apparition from a horror movie. When you get to a population pyramid like that it is well and truly over.

Emiratis in the UAE are only 1,200,000 strong. That is smaller than the population of Estonia. Yet they post a very respectable 30,900 annual births for that citizen population. By contrast non citizens have ultra-low TFR, a population of 9,000,000 plus & only 65,700 births.

TFR of Heilongjiang & Shanghai almost defy belief. Having a TFR of 0.53-0.65 must reinforce the belief of many that there is no TFR floor. Personally do not hold that belief. Each society has a TFR floor. That floor is probably higher in Europe than East Asia & higher in US than Europe.

Unreal, Colombia’s Bogota Department (the national capital) has East Asian fertility rate of just 0.90! Antioquia (huge Department of 7 million people) has the same TFR as Spain or Poland. The only Department with good TFR (La Guajira) has sub 1M people & is 45% indigenous.

Emigration greatly exacerbating demographic crisis in Italy. Last year 191,000 Italians relocated abroad.  That’s on top of a natural decline of 280,655.  Meloni’s natalist measures (longer parental leave+tax breaks for mothers with 2+ children) not working.

https://t.co/ySKjh04yz7

The demographic crisis is global & dramatic. It will impact almost everything. Births rates have plummeted from Bangladesh to Brazil, Peru to Poland, Spain to Saudi Arabia. AI may dulls the blow but cannot carry a civilization or culture forward, you need young people for that.

Things have demographically gotten much worse since 2021 for many of the countries on this chart. If these trends hold the pensions crises and other aging related issues will be at policymakers doorsteps much faster than they thought.

🇲🇳👶Even Mongolia seeing a huge crash in births over the past half decade…

Significant improvement in Spanish births in March 2025 but that does not point to an improving trend. As you can see from the chart from INE, births have improved in March after falling in February in Spain every year. Births then fall again in April. Every time.