The 18-44 demographic is a key one in the UK, US, Australia, & Canada. A massive political shift is inevitable as Gen Z & Millennials largely reject (often vehemently so) the Boomer economic & political (international & domestic) vision (or lack thereof depending on who you are talking to).
The US boomer population is much bigger than just those born from 1946-1964(which was already massive). ⬆️ 10M immigrants who arrived mainly from 1966-1992 also significantly pad the ranks of the soon to be/current pensioners. Retirement wave is huge with many opportunities.
The baby boomer generation started shaping the U.S. as early as the late 1960s (when their earliest members were in their early to mid 20s) & continued to be the dominant force until today. This economic, political, & cultural dominance will largely transition to millennials.
The largest five year cohort of Gen X was born from 1965-1970. They largely share baby boomer political & cultural sentiment. More distinct Gen Xers born from 1971-1980 are so much smaller in number than millennials born from 1981-1991 that they will be quickly overshadowed.
The baby boomer generation started shaping the U.S. as early as the late 1960s (when their earliest members were in their early to mid 20s) & continued to be the dominant force until today. This economic, political, & cultural dominance will largely transition to millennials.
The largest five year cohort of Gen X was born from 1965-1970. They largely share baby boomer political & cultural sentiment. More distinct Gen Xers born from 1971-1980 are so much smaller in number than millennials born from 1981-1991 that they will be quickly overshadowed.
Demographics Now and Then
The US boomer population is much bigger than just those born from 1946-1964(which was already massive). ⬆️ 10M immigrants who arrived mainly from 1966-1992 also significantly pad the ranks of the soon to be/current pensioners. Retirement wave is huge with…
From 1971-1980 births averaged around 3,300,000 compared to around 3,800,000 from 1981-1990. The surge in immigration during the GW Bush Administration in the 2000s also padded millennial ranks.
Iran's population growth rate is expected to reach zero by 2041. Births have fallen a massive 31% since 2016. Iranian authorities have responded to the crisis by offering marriage loans & housing deposits for families with 3 children, to little effect.
https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-birth-rate-falls-below-1mn-as-population-crisis-deepens-366755/
https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-birth-rate-falls-below-1mn-as-population-crisis-deepens-366755/
Demographics Now and Then
While 2025 got off to a good start in South Korea with a massive surge in births and a fertility rate of 0.88 for January things began to regress closer to the norm in March. Births were 2,000 lower than January & the fertility rate fell back to 0.77.
Still better than March 2024 so a year on year improvement.
Russia has a large comeback cohort born from 2008-2016 (with births btwn 1,713,947 & 1,942,683 every year of cohort). Its eldest turn 18 next year. While this group is clearly vital for Russia’s demographic recovery they are obviously viewed as a vital military asset as well.
Even if the war in Ukraine ends before 2026 Russia will undoubtedly want to maintain a large standing army as this is now central to its national interests. They are demographically able to do so until well into 2040s unlike much of Europe w/minuscule Zoomer & Alpha generations.
In comparison,Germany has a small Zoomer generation,as does Poland, Italy, Spain etc. Yet another example of how demographics directly impact national security. Putin invested heavily to create the 2008-2016 boom which led to TFR climbing as high as 1.77 for partly this reason.
Even if the war in Ukraine ends before 2026 Russia will undoubtedly want to maintain a large standing army as this is now central to its national interests. They are demographically able to do so until well into 2040s unlike much of Europe w/minuscule Zoomer & Alpha generations.
In comparison,Germany has a small Zoomer generation,as does Poland, Italy, Spain etc. Yet another example of how demographics directly impact national security. Putin invested heavily to create the 2008-2016 boom which led to TFR climbing as high as 1.77 for partly this reason.
Demographics Now and Then
Russia has a large comeback cohort born from 2008-2016 (with births btwn 1,713,947 & 1,942,683 every year of cohort). Its eldest turn 18 next year. While this group is clearly vital for Russia’s demographic recovery they are obviously viewed as a vital military…
Ukraine saw two good years towards the tail end of Gen Z(2009 & 2012)but a substantial part of this cohort had to flee abroad to escape fighting in 2022. If they don’t return(& gradually assimilate)the future of Ukraine is obviously very much at risk (culturally & otherwise).
Poorer countries will struggle the most with labor shortages as they will be losing people to both natural decline and emigration in the decades ahead.
Article critiquing main schools of thinking in Putin’s Russian demographic policy: ultraconservative (more radical ideas including a full abortion ban) & pragmatist (natalist benefits+payouts).
https://t.co/GNUepMAey9
https://t.co/GNUepMAey9
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Putin’s Irrational Demographic Policies Are Doomed to Fail
Trying to boost Russia’s fertility rate at the same time as sending tens of thousands of men off to die in a large-scale war in Ukraine is clearly irrational.
Myanmar is being slowly destroyed town by town (now apparently becoming city by city). Emigration and refugee flows to neighboring countries & the destruction of many opportunities leave a bleak future. On top of all this the country has below replacement fertility.
https://www.tgoop.com/AMK_Mapping/12377
https://www.tgoop.com/AMK_Mapping/12377
Telegram
AMK Mapping
Arguably the most underreported major battle in the world which is happening right now is the battle of Bhamo in Myanmar.
Over 6 months straight of fierce urban warfare, with heavy usage of FPV drones, airstrikes and artillery has largely destroyed this…
Over 6 months straight of fierce urban warfare, with heavy usage of FPV drones, airstrikes and artillery has largely destroyed this…
Number of Venezuelans emigrants in recent years is almost unbelievable. ~8 million Venezuelans have fled. This is worse emigration than Syria or any other country for its size. Despite Maduro calling for Venezuelan women to have lots of kids they will never recover.
The Maduro regime has permanently destroyed the demographic future of the country. What has happened to Venezuela is worse than what befell Zimbabwe from 1987-2017 under Mugabe.
https://www.unhcr.org/us/emergencies/venezuela-situation
The Maduro regime has permanently destroyed the demographic future of the country. What has happened to Venezuela is worse than what befell Zimbabwe from 1987-2017 under Mugabe.
https://www.unhcr.org/us/emergencies/venezuela-situation
Piece on how demographic decline may lead to an increase in warfare (motivated by the desire to compensate, directly or indirectly, for population loss). Author postulates this may have been a driving factor behind Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.
https://t.co/HCo1H3Cx9K
https://t.co/HCo1H3Cx9K
Foreign Policy
The Battle for Ukraine Is a War of Demography
Russia's crisis of depopulation is at the heart of Vladimir Putin’s paranoid military strategy.
Demographics Now and Then
Piece on how demographic decline may lead to an increase in warfare (motivated by the desire to compensate, directly or indirectly, for population loss). Author postulates this may have been a driving factor behind Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.…
Have long argued that catastrophic demographics present a national security risk. As we return to an era of military might resolving territorial/boundary disputes this becomes even more so.
For example, during the 1990s Armenia-Azerbaijan War over Artsakh/Karabakh Azerbaijan had almost 3.5 million people and Azerbaijan was around double. By the 2020 War Armenia had fallen to ~3 million while Azerbaijan had risen to ~10 million.
For example, during the 1990s Armenia-Azerbaijan War over Artsakh/Karabakh Azerbaijan had almost 3.5 million people and Azerbaijan was around double. By the 2020 War Armenia had fallen to ~3 million while Azerbaijan had risen to ~10 million.
The fall in births in Taiwan last month was so extreme that births for the January-May 2025 period are now down more than 13% below the level for the same period last year. Taiwan on a trajectory to hit South Korean (sub 0.80) fertility levels.