The US boomer population is much bigger than just those born from 1946-1964(which was already massive). ⬆️ 10M immigrants who arrived mainly from 1966-1992 also significantly pad the ranks of the soon to be/current pensioners. Retirement wave is huge with many opportunities.

The baby boomer generation started shaping the U.S. as early as the late 1960s (when their earliest members were in their early to mid 20s) & continued to be the dominant force until today. This economic, political, & cultural dominance will largely transition to millennials.

The largest five year cohort of Gen X was born from 1965-1970. They largely share baby boomer political & cultural sentiment. More distinct Gen Xers born from 1971-1980 are so much smaller in number than millennials born from 1981-1991 that they will be quickly overshadowed.

From 1971-1980 births averaged around 3,300,000 compared to around 3,800,000 from 1981-1990. The surge in immigration during the GW Bush Administration in the 2000s also padded millennial ranks.

While 2025 got off to a good start in South Korea with a massive surge in births and a fertility rate of 0.88 for January things began to regress closer to the norm in March.  Births were 2,000 lower than January & the fertility rate fell back to 0.77.

Iran's population growth rate is expected to reach zero by 2041. Births have fallen a massive 31% since 2016. Iranian authorities have responded to the crisis by offering marriage loans & housing deposits for families with 3 children, to little effect.

https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-birth-rate-falls-below-1mn-as-population-crisis-deepens-366755/

Still better than March 2024 so a year on year improvement.

Russia has a large comeback cohort born from 2008-2016 (with births btwn 1,713,947 & 1,942,683 every year of cohort). Its eldest turn 18 next year. While this group is clearly vital for Russia’s demographic recovery they are obviously viewed as a vital military asset as well.

Even if the war in Ukraine ends before 2026 Russia will undoubtedly want to maintain a large standing army as this is now central to its national interests. They are demographically able to do so until well into 2040s unlike much of Europe w/minuscule Zoomer & Alpha generations.

In comparison,Germany has a small Zoomer generation,as does Poland, Italy, Spain etc. Yet another example of how demographics directly impact national security. Putin invested heavily to create the 2008-2016 boom which led to TFR climbing as high as 1.77 for partly this reason.

Ukraine saw two good years towards the tail end of Gen Z(2009 & 2012)but a substantial part of this cohort had to flee abroad to escape fighting in 2022. If they don’t return(& gradually assimilate)the future of Ukraine is obviously very much at risk (culturally & otherwise).

The global demographic deceleration.  This one chart shows the dramatic fall across every single region of earth.  Even in Africa TFR is falling by ~1.0 every decade & looks set to be below replacement well before 2050, MENA by 2035. & things have only gotten worse since 2022…

Poorer countries will struggle the most with labor shortages as they will be losing people to both natural decline and emigration in the decades ahead.

Conflict to restore disputed boundaries coming into fashion again just as many countries are well into their demographic suicide arc. Lebanon well below replacement, Jordan rapidly getting there. Baltic States & Belarus have lowest low TFR. South Korea obviously worst situation.

Article critiquing main schools of thinking in Putin’s Russian demographic policy: ultraconservative (more radical ideas including a full abortion ban) & pragmatist (natalist benefits+payouts).

https://t.co/GNUepMAey9

Myanmar is being slowly destroyed town by town (now apparently becoming city by city). Emigration and refugee flows to neighboring countries & the destruction of many opportunities leave a bleak future. On top of all this the country has below replacement fertility.

https://www.tgoop.com/AMK_Mapping/12377

Number of Venezuelans emigrants in recent years is almost unbelievable. ~8 million Venezuelans have fled. This is worse emigration than Syria or any other country for its size. Despite Maduro calling for Venezuelan women to have lots of kids they will never recover.

The Maduro regime has permanently destroyed the demographic future of the country. What has happened to Venezuela is worse than what befell Zimbabwe from 1987-2017 under Mugabe.

https://www.unhcr.org/us/emergencies/venezuela-situation

Egypt may hit replacement as early as 2026. Likely to be at 1.5 by 2035. This is the probable result of secular Egyptian fertility rates hitting East Asian levels (as Sisi wanted) while religious Egyptian fertility stays above 2.0.

Piece on how demographic decline may lead to an increase in warfare (motivated by the desire to compensate, directly or indirectly, for population loss).  Author postulates this may have been a driving factor behind Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.

https://t.co/HCo1H3Cx9K

Have long argued that catastrophic demographics present a national security risk. As we return to an era of military might resolving territorial/boundary disputes this becomes even more so.

For example, during the 1990s Armenia-Azerbaijan War over Artsakh/Karabakh Azerbaijan had almost 3.5 million people and Azerbaijan was around double. By the 2020 War Armenia had fallen to ~3 million while Azerbaijan had risen to ~10 million.